Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $295 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$295.5
-$14.24
99.6¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.5¢ | $169.13 | $161.5 | -$7.63 | 50% 4490-4436 (8926) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $55.16 | $52.54 | -$2.62 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $39.8 | $38 | -$1.8 | 28% 2439-6150 (8589) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $38.49 | $36.64 | -$1.85 | 30% 184-421 (605) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $7.17 | $6.82 | -$0.34 | 38% 168-279 (447) |
balthazarInvested
$169.13
Value
$161.5
PnL
-$7.63
Record
50%
4490-4436 (8926)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$55.16
Value
$52.54
PnL
-$2.62
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$39.8
Value
$38
PnL
-$1.8
Record
28%
2439-6150 (8589)
Invested
$38.49
Value
$36.64
PnL
-$1.85
Record
30%
184-421 (605)
Invested
$7.17
Value
$6.82
PnL
-$0.34
Record
38%
168-279 (447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.