Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 88¢ · $93 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$93.45
$1.83
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $35.11 | $34.71 | -$0.4 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 88.6¢ | $22 | $21.35 | -$0.65 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $26.57 | $16.42 | -$0.84 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.5¢ | $10.68 | $14.69 | +$4.01 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $6.45 | $6.17 | -$0.29 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
Invested
$35.11
Value
$34.71
PnL
-$0.4
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$22
Value
$21.35
PnL
-$0.65
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$26.57
Value
$16.42
PnL
-$0.84
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$10.68
Value
$14.69
PnL
+$4.01
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$6.45
Value
$6.17
PnL
-$0.29
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.