Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on November 11?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $504 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$504.07

Combined PnL

$0.64

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$504.07

Total Shares506

Combined PnL+$0.64

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.6¢	$259.02	$259.37	+$0.35	50% 4491-4437 (8928)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.6¢	$107.09	$107.09	+$0.01	35% 2903-5326 (8229)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$77.85	$77.85	+$0	31% 200-440 (640)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99¢	$39.6	$39.88	+$0.28	28% 2439-6150 (8589)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$7.16	$7.16	+$0	36% 516-906 (1422)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.18	$5.18	+$0	30% 184-421 (605)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.12	$5.12	+$0	38% 168-279 (447)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$2.41	$2.41	-$0	37% 183-315 (498)

balthazar

Invested

$259.02

Value

$259.37

PnL

+$0.35

Record

50%

4491-4437 (8928)

Lucerys

Invested

$107.09

Value

$107.09

PnL

+$0.01

Record

35%

2903-5326 (8229)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$77.85

Value

$77.85

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

200-440 (640)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$39.6

Value

$39.88

PnL

+$0.28

Record

28%

2439-6150 (8589)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$7.16

Value

$7.16

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

516-906 (1422)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.18

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

184-421 (605)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

168-279 (447)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.41

Value

$2.41

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

183-315 (498)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.