Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on November 10?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $13 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$13.38
-$2.02
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $7.8 | $5.66 | -$2.14 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $5.14 | $5.07 | +$0.15 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $2.5 | $2.48 | -$0.02 | 100% 93-0 (93) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $0.15 | $0.14 | -$0.01 | 34% 150-294 (444) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $0.03 | $0.03 | -$0 | 35% 138-259 (397) |
Invested
$7.8
Value
$5.66
PnL
-$2.14
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$5.14
Value
$5.07
PnL
+$0.15
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$0.02
Record
100%
93-0 (93)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$0.01
Record
34%
150-294 (444)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
138-259 (397)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.