Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (75%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on November 10?

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 25¢ · $187 held · ends Nov 10

Yes75¢No25¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 14%

Total Value

$187.14

Combined PnL

-$54.15

Research grade

AvoidNo at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes75%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$126.25

Total Shares407

Combined PnL-$69.28

Yes6 traders

Total Value$60.89

Total Shares73

Combined PnL+$15.13

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 48¢	$195.54	$126.25	-$69.28	21% 132-485 (617)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 53.9¢	$21.81	$26.53	+$4.72	89% 409-53 (462)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 50.4¢	$12.14	$11.88	+$4.98	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 59.4¢	$7.13	$9.25	+$2.12	31% 163-361 (524)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$4.9	$7.7	+$2.8	2% 12-662 (674)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 70.2¢	$3.64	$4	+$0.35	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$1.38	$1.54	+$0.16	28% 153-400 (553)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$195.54

Value

$126.25

PnL

-$69.28

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.81

Value

$26.53

PnL

+$4.72

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.14

Value

$11.88

PnL

+$4.98

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.13

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$2.12

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.9

Value

$7.7

PnL

+$2.8

Record

12-662 (674)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.64

Value

PnL

+$0.35

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.16

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.