Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on November 10?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 18¢ · $117 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$116.58
$3.01
Research grade
AvoidYes at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 23.6¢ | $67.95 | $57.91 | -$10.04 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23.6¢ | $39.39 | $31.73 | -$7.66 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 84¢ | $28.56 | $26.18 | -$2.38 | |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 69.3¢ | $50.38 | $52.12 | +$1.74 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.1¢ | $2.82 | $2.32 | -$0.5 | 30% 174-414 (588) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.5¢ | $10.51 | $2.32 | +$2.17 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $2.31 | $1.91 | -$0.4 | 31% 163-361 (524) |
Invested
$67.95
Value
$57.91
PnL
-$10.04
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.38
Value
$52.12
PnL
+$1.74
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$2.82
Value
$2.32
PnL
-$0.5
Record
30%
174-414 (588)
Invested
$10.51
Value
$2.32
PnL
+$2.17
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$2.31
Value
$1.91
PnL
-$0.4
Record
31%
163-361 (524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.