Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on October 30?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 90¢ · $428 held · ends Oct 30

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$427.99

Combined PnL

$8.93

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 90¢

+23% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$416.81

Total Shares467

Combined PnL+$6.85

Yes2 traders

Total Value$11.18

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$2.08

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 69.8¢	$310.93	$326.22	+$15.3	51% 602-578 (1180)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 82.8¢	$79.01	$70.57	-$8.44	50% 1704-1692 (3396)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 87¢	$20.2	$20.01	-$0.01	23% 287-958 (1245)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.5¢	$7.99	$8.29	+$0.31	57% 13340-10198 (23538)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.11	$2.89	+$1.78	60% 1670-1125 (2795)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$310.93

Value

$326.22

PnL

+$15.3

Record

51%

602-578 (1180)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$79.01

Value

$70.57

PnL

-$8.44

Record

50%

1704-1692 (3396)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

23%

287-958 (1245)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.99

Value

$8.29

PnL

+$0.31

Record

57%

13340-10198 (23538)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$2.89

PnL

+$1.78

Record

60%

1670-1125 (2795)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.