Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on October 30?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 74¢ · $157 held · ends Oct 30

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$157.23

Combined PnL

$5.67

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 74¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$119.88

Total Shares139

Combined PnL+$1.08

Yes1 trader

Total Value$37.35

Total Shares86

Combined PnL+$4.6

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 73¢	$65.41	$64.54	-$0.44	21% 295-1083 (1378)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 72¢	$44.17	$45.41	+$1.24	53% 6458-5657 (12115)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.5¢	$32.75	$37.35	+$4.6	59% 1714-1182 (2896)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 72¢	$9.66	$9.93	+$0.27	57% 13427-10262 (23689)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$65.41

Value

$64.54

PnL

-$0.44

Record

21%

295-1083 (1378)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$44.17

Value

$45.41

PnL

+$1.24

Record

53%

6458-5657 (12115)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.75

Value

$37.35

PnL

+$4.6

Record

59%

1714-1182 (2896)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.66

Value

$9.93

PnL

+$0.27

Record

57%

13427-10262 (23689)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.0%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.