Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on October 30?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 73¢ · $122 held · ends Oct 30

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$122.27

Combined PnL

$1.54

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$81.31

Total Shares102

Combined PnL-$4.95

Yes1 trader

Total Value$40.96

Total Shares164

Combined PnL+$6.49

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$57.48	$54.41	-$3.08	50% 1744-1729 (3473)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.5¢	$34.03	$40.96	+$6.49	59% 1714-1182 (2896)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$35.79	$16.77	-$1.61	57% 13427-10262 (23689)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 74¢	$10.53	$10.13	-$0.27	21% 295-1083 (1378)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$57.48

Value

$54.41

PnL

-$3.08

Record

50%

1744-1729 (3473)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.03

Value

$40.96

PnL

+$6.49

Record

59%

1714-1182 (2896)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$35.79

Value

$16.77

PnL

-$1.61

Record

57%

13427-10262 (23689)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$10.53

Value

$10.13

PnL

-$0.27

Record

21%

295-1083 (1378)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.18

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.