Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on October 29?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 13¢ · $419 held · ends Oct 29

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$418.64

Combined PnL

$77.37

Smart Money Entry

12¢ → 13¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$242.88

Total Shares1,428

Combined PnL+$71.35

No2 traders

Total Value$175.75

Total Shares202

Combined PnL+$6.03

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 12.7¢	$131.71	$192.38	+$60.68	47% 606-687 (1293)
RO rocky42019	Noavg 84.9¢	$187.59	$119.56	+$5.54	42% 1678-2300 (3978)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 86.3¢	$55.71	$56.19	+$0.48	55% 302-247 (549)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$39.83	$50.5	+$10.67	60% 1636-1103 (2739)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$131.71

Value

$192.38

PnL

+$60.68

Record

47%

606-687 (1293)

rocky42019

Invested

$187.59

Value

$119.56

PnL

+$5.54

Record

42%

1678-2300 (3978)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$55.71

Value

$56.19

PnL

+$0.48

Record

55%

302-247 (549)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.83

Value

$50.5

PnL

+$10.67

Record

60%

1636-1103 (2739)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.6%

13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$584.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

684.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.