Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on October 29?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 65¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$2.0K
$435.83
57.4¢ → 65¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 57¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | +$416.56 | 50% 1689-1672 (3361) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $112.85 | $133.06 | +$20.21 | 47% 606-687 (1293) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 65.6¢ | $78.57 | $77.87 | -$0.7 | 60% 1636-1103 (2739) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $22.97 | $23.46 | +$0.03 | 42% 1678-2300 (3978) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $5.46 | $5.15 | -$0.32 | 57% 13272-10114 (23386) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $1.71 | $1.76 | +$0.05 | 55% 302-247 (549) |
Invested
$1,377.47
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$416.56
Record
50%
1689-1672 (3361)
Invested
$112.85
Value
$133.06
PnL
+$20.21
Record
47%
606-687 (1293)
Invested
$78.57
Value
$77.87
PnL
-$0.7
Record
60%
1636-1103 (2739)
Invested
$22.97
Value
$23.46
PnL
+$0.03
Record
42%
1678-2300 (3978)
Invested
$5.46
Value
$5.15
PnL
-$0.32
Record
57%
13272-10114 (23386)
Invested
$1.71
Value
$1.76
PnL
+$0.05
Record
55%
302-247 (549)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.