Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on October 28?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 46¢ · $293 held · ends Oct 28

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$293.35

Combined PnL

-$2.75

Smart Money Entry

42.3¢ → 45.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$202.4

Total Shares438

Combined PnL+$4.5

No4 traders

Total Value$90.95

Total Shares120

Combined PnL-$7.24

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 41.5¢	$129.97	$134.61	+$4.64	51% 577-548 (1125)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 58¢	$82.91	$53	-$6.68	29% 280-697 (977)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 46.1¢	$51.1	$50.13	-$0.97	61% 1566-1014 (2580)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$16.83	$17.65	+$0.82	50% 1640-1625 (3265)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 59¢	$15.45	$14.93	-$0.52	61% 20619-13064 (33683)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 59¢	$14.78	$14.28	-$0.5	73% 8237-3091 (11328)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 54¢	$30.02	$8.74	+$0.46	53% 6286-5517 (11803)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$129.97

Value

$134.61

PnL

+$4.64

Record

51%

577-548 (1125)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$82.91

Value

$53

PnL

-$6.68

Record

29%

280-697 (977)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.1

Value

$50.13

PnL

-$0.97

Record

61%

1566-1014 (2580)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.83

Value

$17.65

PnL

+$0.82

Record

50%

1640-1625 (3265)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$15.45

Value

$14.93

PnL

-$0.52

Record

61%

20619-13064 (33683)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$14.78

Value

$14.28

PnL

-$0.5

Record

73%

8237-3091 (11328)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$30.02

Value

$8.74

PnL

+$0.46

Record

53%

6286-5517 (11803)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.