Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 28?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 88¢ · $280 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$279.76
-$7.69
90.5¢ → 87.6¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $172 | $165.18 | -$6.82 | 60% 1599-1049 (2648) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 85.7¢ | $67.33 | $68.83 | +$1.49 | 50% 1654-1641 (3295) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $36.43 | $35.03 | -$1.4 | 55% 266-222 (488) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 86.2¢ | $56.33 | $10.72 | -$0.97 | 53% 6325-5539 (11864) |
Invested
$172
Value
$165.18
PnL
-$6.82
Record
60%
1599-1049 (2648)
Invested
$67.33
Value
$68.83
PnL
+$1.49
Record
50%
1654-1641 (3295)
Invested
$36.43
Value
$35.03
PnL
-$1.4
Record
55%
266-222 (488)
Invested
$56.33
Value
$10.72
PnL
-$0.97
Record
53%
6325-5539 (11864)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.