Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on October 27?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 22¢ · $345 held · ended Oct 27

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$344.8

Combined PnL

$12.62

Smart Money Entry

26¢ → 22¢

-15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$186.09

Total Shares582

Combined PnL+$35.05

No3 traders

Total Value$158.71

Total Shares196

Combined PnL-$22.43

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 26.7¢	$123.43	$147.68	+$24.25	46% 555-643 (1198)
Istaroth	Noavg 70.4¢	$157.61	$79.83	-$8.82	32% 273-569 (842)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 79.2¢	$55.47	$47.6	-$7.87	61% 20509-12859 (33368)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$27.61	$38.41	+$10.8	55% 217-178 (395)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$37.02	$31.28	-$5.74	61% 1527-966 (2493)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$123.43

Value

$147.68

PnL

+$24.25

Record

46%

555-643 (1198)

Istaroth

Invested

$157.61

Value

$79.83

PnL

-$8.82

Record

32%

273-569 (842)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$55.47

Value

$47.6

PnL

-$7.87

Record

61%

20509-12859 (33368)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.61

Value

$38.41

PnL

+$10.8

Record

55%

217-178 (395)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$37.02

Value

$31.28

PnL

-$5.74

Record

61%

1527-966 (2493)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.