Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on October 27?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $137 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$137.13
$2.02
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $92.23 | $97.96 | +$5.74 | 61% 1529-967 (2496) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75¢ | $72.73 | $76.63 | +$3.9 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 46.7¢ | $47.45 | $21.33 | +$1.84 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.2¢ | $39.76 | $31.73 | -$3.91 | 57% 12909-9833 (22742) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $10.72 | $7.44 | +$5.93 | 53% 6235-5472 (11707) |
Invested
$92.23
Value
$97.96
PnL
+$5.74
Record
61%
1529-967 (2496)
Both legs:
Invested
$39.76
Value
$31.73
PnL
-$3.91
Record
57%
12909-9833 (22742)
Invested
$10.72
Value
$7.44
PnL
+$5.93
Record
53%
6235-5472 (11707)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.