Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on November 9?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 41¢ · $202 held · ends Nov 9

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$202

Combined PnL

$10.01

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$129.19

Total Shares239

Combined PnL+$12.22

No8 traders

Total Value$72.81

Total Shares176

Combined PnL-$2.21

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$76.27	$74.55	+$1.02	57% 923-700 (1623)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 44.9¢	$39.76	$47.58	+$10.89	20% 978-3834 (4812)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100	Noavg 50.6¢	$16.96	$14.41	-$1.71	61% 726-459 (1185)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$13.4	$13.91	+$0.52	43% 5587-7267 (12854)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 38.1¢	$12.06	$12.83	+$0.78	47% 47634-54192 (101826)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 55.5¢	$16.38	$12.69	-$3.55	57% 25400-18932 (44332)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 37.2¢	$9.52	$10.35	+$0.84	43% 18713-24467 (43180)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 56.9¢	$6.75	$7.06	+$0.31	55% 26060-21350 (47410)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 38.5¢	$3.92	$4.13	+$0.21	50% 9346-9412 (18758)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$2.06	$2.45	+$0.39	46% 6200-7413 (13613)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$1.71	$2.03	+$0.33	69% 16769-7377 (24146)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.27

Value

$74.55

PnL

+$1.02

Record

57%

923-700 (1623)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.76

Value

$47.58

PnL

+$10.89

Record

20%

978-3834 (4812)

Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100

Invested

$16.96

Value

$14.41

PnL

-$1.71

Record

61%

726-459 (1185)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$13.4

Value

$13.91

PnL

+$0.52

Record

43%

5587-7267 (12854)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$12.06

Value

$12.83

PnL

+$0.78

Record

47%

47634-54192 (101826)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$16.38

Value

$12.69

PnL

-$3.55

Record

57%

25400-18932 (44332)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$9.52

Value

$10.35

PnL

+$0.84

Record

43%

18713-24467 (43180)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.75

Value

$7.06

PnL

+$0.31

Record

55%

26060-21350 (47410)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.21

Record

50%

9346-9412 (18758)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$2.06

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.39

Record

46%

6200-7413 (13613)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.71

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$0.33

Record

69%

16769-7377 (24146)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.