Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 12 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on November 8?

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 46¢ · $278 held · ended Nov 8

Yes55¢No45¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$277.53

Combined PnL

$7.68

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 45.5¢

-6% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$205.23

Total Shares429

Combined PnL-$2.73

Yes3 traders

Total Value$72.31

Total Shares171

Combined PnL+$10.41

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$71.72	$62.18	-$9.54	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 37.1¢	$42.05	$46.42	+$4.37	56% 829-641 (1470)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 50.4¢	$24.62	$24.18	-$0.44	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$11.11	$22.22	+$11.11	53% 8890-8041 (16931)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 40.7¢	$19.45	$20.34	+$0.88	54% 10777-9308 (20085)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 56.9¢	$19.71	$17.5	-$2.2	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$18	$15.3	-$2.7	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 55.8¢	$19.92	$14.29	-$5.63	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 44.7¢	$12.11	$13.68	+$1.57	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 26.8¢	$4.64	$8.58	+$3.94	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 30.2¢	$5.92	$8.13	+$2.21	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 42.6¢	$6.51	$7.57	+$1.05	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 40.5¢	$4.93	$6.03	+$1.1	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 68.4¢	$8.77	$5.58	-$3.19	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.4	$5.55	+$5.15	24% 8014-25858 (33872)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$71.72

Value

$62.18

PnL

-$9.54

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.05

Value

$46.42

PnL

+$4.37

Record

56%

829-641 (1470)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$24.62

Value

$24.18

PnL

-$0.44

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$11.11

Value

$22.22

PnL

+$11.11

Record

53%

8890-8041 (16931)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.45

Value

$20.34

PnL

+$0.88

Record

54%

10777-9308 (20085)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$19.71

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$2.2

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$15.3

PnL

-$2.7

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$19.92

Value

$14.29

PnL

-$5.63

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$12.11

Value

$13.68

PnL

+$1.57

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$4.64

Value

$8.58

PnL

+$3.94

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$5.92

Value

$8.13

PnL

+$2.21

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$7.57

PnL

+$1.05

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$4.93

Value

$6.03

PnL

+$1.1

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$8.77

Value

$5.58

PnL

-$3.19

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$5.55

PnL

+$5.15

Record

24%

8014-25858 (33872)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.