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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on November 7?

Resolved No. 10% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Yes 25%

Total Value

$45.72

Combined PnL

-$230.67

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 10 top traders (10%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders
Total Value$45.72
Total Shares46
Combined PnL+$3
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares581
Combined PnL-$233.67
No — 90%Yes — 10%
0X
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100
No

Invested

$10.36

Value

$38.53

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

PO
Poligarch<$100
No

Invested

$3

Value

$5

PnL

+$2

Record

54%

10777-9308 (20085)

0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR
Yes

Invested

$233.67

Value

—

PnL

-$233.67

Record

37%

913-1562 (2475)

GH
ghorrock<$100
No

Invested

$1.25

Value

$2.19

PnL

+$0.93

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Lucerys<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

QW
qwen300.fund<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

GR
graynotebook19<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

18915-12738 (31653)

HA
haveagoodday<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

3898-4513 (8411)

QU
quietparcel<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

11465-12267 (23732)

Istaroth<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

13%

603-4221 (4824)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x81e3438f...26d8a7
Slug
highest-temperature-in-buenos-aires-on-november-7-2026-19c

Traders in this Market

0X

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

No — $38.53

+$0.06
PO

Poligarch

No — $5

+$2
0X

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

CTR

Yes — $0

-$233.67
GH

ghorrock

No — $2.19

+$0.93

Lucerys

No — $0

+$0
QW

qwen300.fund

No — $0

+$0
GR

graynotebook19

No — $0

+$0
HA

haveagoodday

No — $0

+$0
QU

quietparcel

No — $0

+$0

Istaroth

No — $0

+$0
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