Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on November 7?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $477 held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$477

Combined PnL

$100.43

Smart Money Entry

29.5¢ → 0.3¢

-99% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$374.59

Total Shares877

Combined PnL+$109.23

No4 traders

Total Value$102.41

Total Shares156

Combined PnL-$8.8

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 27.7¢	$180.42	$273.29	+$92.87	37% 903-1557 (2460)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.8¢	$59.87	$72.29	+$12.42	53% 4144-3712 (7856)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$50	$49.7	-$6.81	56% 781-606 (1387)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	No	$29.48	$29.48	+$0.43	53% 4566-4056 (8622)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.6¢	$15.42	$17.26	+$1.83	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
Roflan-ludoman<$100	Noavg 80¢	$16	$13.13	-$1.9	61% 687-436 (1123)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.5¢	$9.65	$11.76	+$2.11	32% 2247-4752 (6999)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69¢	$10.61	$10.1	-$0.51	58% 21689-15792 (37481)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$180.42

Value

$273.29

PnL

+$92.87

Record

37%

903-1557 (2460)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.87

Value

$72.29

PnL

+$12.42

Record

53%

4144-3712 (7856)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$49.7

PnL

-$6.81

Record

56%

781-606 (1387)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$29.48

Value

$29.48

PnL

+$0.43

Record

53%

4566-4056 (8622)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.42

Value

$17.26

PnL

+$1.83

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

Roflan-ludoman<$100

Invested

$16

Value

$13.13

PnL

-$1.9

Record

61%

687-436 (1123)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.65

Value

$11.76

PnL

+$2.11

Record

32%

2247-4752 (6999)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.61

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$0.51

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.