Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on November 5?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 65¢ · $689 held · ended Nov 5

Yes35¢No65¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$688.66

Combined PnL

$194.15

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 65¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$337.44

Total Shares505

Combined PnL+$193.83

Yes3 traders

Total Value$23.71

Total Shares91

Combined PnL+$0.31

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Yesavg 25.9¢	$237.09	$327.52	+$90.43	41% 832-1198 (2030)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.9¢	$257.34	$257.95	+$94.22
└ No leg	Noavg 71.7¢	$73.35	$69.56	-$3.79
Istaroth	Noavg 70.6¢	$380.4	$193.5	-$16.04	13% 524-3363 (3887)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 72.9¢	$46.64	$42.27	-$4.37	54% 10543-9121 (19664)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 3.8¢	$11.07	$40.53	+$212.36	45% 1780-2176 (3956)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 69.6¢	$27.11	$26.49	-$0.62	53% 23469-20698 (44167)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$21.18	$20.42	-$0.76	53% 4075-3600 (7675)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$47.49	$14.72	+$2.21	58% 21138-15369 (36507)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$7.01	$6.8	-$0.21	26% 7287-21045 (28332)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 63.4¢	$33.34	$6.62	+$0.11	35% 1125-2074 (3199)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 67.3¢	$85.31	$6.5	+$0.39	73% 13760-5199 (18959)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.68	$1.99	+$0.31	17% 4487-21969 (26456)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$0.54	$1.3	+$0.76	43% 2311-3103 (5414)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$237.09

Value

$327.52

PnL

+$90.43

Record

41%

832-1198 (2030)

Both legs:

Yes$257.3425.9¢+$94.22

No$73.3571.7¢-$3.79

Istaroth

Invested

$380.4

Value

$193.5

PnL

-$16.04

Record

13%

524-3363 (3887)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$46.64

Value

$42.27

PnL

-$4.37

Record

54%

10543-9121 (19664)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$11.07

Value

$40.53

PnL

+$212.36

Record

45%

1780-2176 (3956)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$27.11

Value

$26.49

PnL

-$0.62

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.18

Value

$20.42

PnL

-$0.76

Record

53%

4075-3600 (7675)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$47.49

Value

$14.72

PnL

+$2.21

Record

58%

21138-15369 (36507)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$7.01

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$0.21

Record

26%

7287-21045 (28332)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$33.34

Value

$6.62

PnL

+$0.11

Record

35%

1125-2074 (3199)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$85.31

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$0.39

Record

73%

13760-5199 (18959)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.99

PnL

+$0.31

Record

17%

4487-21969 (26456)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.76

Record

43%

2311-3103 (5414)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.