Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on November 5?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 68¢ · $510 held · ends Nov 5

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$509.81

Combined PnL

$111.29

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 67.5¢

+21% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$176

Total Shares243

Combined PnL+$111.74

Yes2 traders

Total Value$22.41

Total Shares86

Combined PnL-$0.45

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$241.23	$311.41	+$100.18	42% 821-1112 (1933)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$248.03	$233.15	+$94.22
└ No leg	Noavg 70.7¢	$72.29	$78.26	+$5.97
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 71.9¢	$61.79	$34.3	+$0.13	54% 10311-8906 (19217)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$75.41	$34.02	-$0.07	75% 13139-4322 (17461)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 2.5¢	$4.02	$33.43	+$109.58	47% 1725-1919 (3644)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 69.6¢	$27.11	$27.27	+$0.16	53% 23194-20409 (43603)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 66.8¢	$53.65	$23.65	+$0.08	58% 12069-8702 (20771)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$21.18	$20.42	-$0.76	53% 3954-3514 (7468)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 66.7¢	$71.8	$16.56	+$2.13	58% 20305-14907 (35212)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$7.01	$6.75	-$0.26	27% 7006-19139 (26145)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.68	$1.99	+$0.31	18% 4435-20817 (25252)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$241.23

Value

$311.41

PnL

+$100.18

Record

42%

821-1112 (1933)

Both legs:

Yes$248.0325¢+$94.22

No$72.2970.7¢+$5.97

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$61.79

Value

$34.3

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

10311-8906 (19217)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$75.41

Value

$34.02

PnL

-$0.07

Record

75%

13139-4322 (17461)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.02

Value

$33.43

PnL

+$109.58

Record

47%

1725-1919 (3644)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$27.11

Value

$27.27

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

23194-20409 (43603)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$53.65

Value

$23.65

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

12069-8702 (20771)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.18

Value

$20.42

PnL

-$0.76

Record

53%

3954-3514 (7468)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$71.8

Value

$16.56

PnL

+$2.13

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$7.01

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$0.26

Record

27%

7006-19139 (26145)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.99

PnL

+$0.31

Record

18%

4435-20817 (25252)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.