Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on November 5?

4 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (24%) · Yes at 96¢ · $413 held · ended Nov 5

Yes96¢No4¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 24%

Total Value

$413.49

Combined PnL

$356.13

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 95.5¢

+98% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 17 top traders (24%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$369.22

Total Shares786

Combined PnL+$35.71

No13 traders

Total Value$44.02

Total Shares258

Combined PnL+$320.42

Yes — 24%No — 76%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 46.4¢	$224.2	$272.74	+$48.54	41% 832-1198 (2030)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 55.3¢	$99.3	$84.42	-$14.87	56% 698-544 (1242)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 43.9¢	$59.12	$16.01	-$3.1	13% 525-3379 (3904)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 50.7¢	$22.13	$12.22	-$9.92	53% 23490-20724 (44214)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 51.2¢	$25.54	$9.71	-$0.68	54% 10554-9130 (19684)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 50.8¢	$11.49	$5.43	-$5.5	58% 21162-15379 (36541)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$3.6	$3.2	-$0.4	26% 7290-21071 (28361)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$0.54	$2.35	+$2.72	42% 2316-3134 (5450)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 3.5¢	$14.89	$1.65	+$301.23	45% 1785-2178 (3963)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 17.9¢	$23.25	$1.18	+$34.54	52% 30802-28940 (59742)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 39.3¢	$46.96	$1.16	+$6.37	54% 12407-10640 (23047)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 33.9¢	$15.43	$0.77	+$0.12	35% 1130-2078 (3208)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 27.2¢	$6.84	$0.67	+$0.44	38% 1190-1963 (3153)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 28.8¢	$15.77	$0.57	-$0.42	38% 1280-2072 (3352)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$0.2	$0.55	+$0.35	53% 4521-4027 (8548)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 28.7¢	$9.36	$0.31	+$0.21	44% 2282-2903 (5185)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 37.8¢	$22.08	$0.3	-$3.5	38% 2370-3815 (6185)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$224.2

Value

$272.74

PnL

+$48.54

Record

41%

832-1198 (2030)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.3

Value

$84.42

PnL

-$14.87

Record

56%

698-544 (1242)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$59.12

Value

$16.01

PnL

-$3.1

Record

13%

525-3379 (3904)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$22.13

Value

$12.22

PnL

-$9.92

Record

53%

23490-20724 (44214)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.54

Value

$9.71

PnL

-$0.68

Record

54%

10554-9130 (19684)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$11.49

Value

$5.43

PnL

-$5.5

Record

58%

21162-15379 (36541)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.4

Record

26%

7290-21071 (28361)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$2.72

Record

42%

2316-3134 (5450)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$14.89

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$301.23

Record

45%

1785-2178 (3963)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$23.25

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$34.54

Record

52%

30802-28940 (59742)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$46.96

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$6.37

Record

54%

12407-10640 (23047)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$15.43

Value

$0.77

PnL

+$0.12

Record

35%

1130-2078 (3208)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$6.84

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0.44

Record

38%

1190-1963 (3153)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$15.77

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$0.42

Record

38%

1280-2072 (3352)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.35

Record

53%

4521-4027 (8548)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$9.36

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.21

Record

44%

2282-2903 (5185)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$22.08

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$3.5

Record

38%

2370-3815 (6185)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 17 top traders (24%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.