Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on November 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 3.9¢ · $30 held · ended Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$30.27

Combined PnL

$9.75

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$22.77

Total Shares32

Combined PnL+$6.55

Yes6 traders

Total Value$6.61

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$3.21

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 62.3¢	$53.62	$10.22	+$6.7	42% 808-1111 (1919)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$6.97	$5.07	-$1.9	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 61.9¢	$3.24	$5.04	+$1.8	49% 868-890 (1758)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$1.64	$2.92	+$1.27	50% 932-930 (1862)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$2.5	$2.44	-$0.06	99% 1631-24 (1655)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$0.67	$0.88	+$0.2	47% 898-1015 (1913)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.25	$0.85	+$0.61	40% 278-409 (687)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.29	$0.8	+$0.51	47% 1255-1396 (2651)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$0.16	$0.78	+$0.61	60% 888-604 (1492)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.3¢	$0.39	$0.39	+$0	71% 954-392 (1346)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$53.62

Value

$10.22

PnL

+$6.7

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.97

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$1.9

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.24

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$1.8

Record

49%

868-890 (1758)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$2.92

PnL

+$1.27

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$0.06

Record

99%

1631-24 (1655)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

898-1015 (1913)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.61

Record

40%

278-409 (687)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$0.51

Record

47%

1255-1396 (2651)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.78

PnL

+$0.61

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.39

PnL

+$0

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.1%

3.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1848.18

Max Loss

-$100.00

1948.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.