Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on November 14?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 64¢ · $243 held · ended Nov 14

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$243.12

Combined PnL

$47.86

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 63.5¢

-4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$133.41

Total Shares371

Combined PnL+$55.66

No9 traders

Total Value$109.64

Total Shares169

Combined PnL-$7.79

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.6¢	$49.98	$87.07	+$37.09	54% 1111-940 (2051)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$44.31	$45.43	+$1.12	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.3¢	$30.57	$33.6	+$9.1	41% 711-1031 (1742)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 80.7¢	$96.84	$28.45	-$10.53	30% 197-458 (655)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 64.1¢	$14.67	$13.91	-$0.76	49% 828-860 (1688)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.8¢	$5.73	$5.82	+$0.09	65% 4332-2355 (6687)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 46.9¢	$4.25	$5.77	+$1.52	50% 763-758 (1521)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 44.8¢	$2.29	$3.26	+$0.97	61% 773-494 (1267)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 80.7¢	$4.1	$3.23	-$0.87	58% 767-547 (1314)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$4.12	$3.21	-$0.91	51% 847-812 (1659)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 46.9¢	$2.36	$3.2	+$0.84	46% 1139-1332 (2471)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 46.9¢	$2.35	$3.18	+$0.84	49% 798-831 (1629)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.45	$2.53	+$10.6	42% 2632-3664 (6296)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.1¢	$2.44	$2.53	+$0.09	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 49.3¢	$5.71	$1.87	-$1.3	52% 810-753 (1563)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.98

Value

$87.07

PnL

+$37.09

Record

54%

1111-940 (2051)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$44.31

Value

$45.43

PnL

+$1.12

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.57

Value

$33.6

PnL

+$9.1

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$96.84

Value

$28.45

PnL

-$10.53

Record

30%

197-458 (655)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$14.67

Value

$13.91

PnL

-$0.76

Record

49%

828-860 (1688)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.73

Value

$5.82

PnL

+$0.09

Record

65%

4332-2355 (6687)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

$5.77

PnL

+$1.52

Record

50%

763-758 (1521)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.29

Value

$3.26

PnL

+$0.97

Record

61%

773-494 (1267)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$0.87

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.12

Value

$3.21

PnL

-$0.91

Record

51%

847-812 (1659)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.36

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0.84

Record

46%

1139-1332 (2471)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.84

Record

49%

798-831 (1629)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.45

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$10.6

Record

42%

2632-3664 (6296)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.44

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.71

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$1.3

Record

52%

810-753 (1563)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.