Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on November 14?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 62¢ · $360 held · ended Nov 14

Yes62¢No38¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

Total Value

$360.4

Combined PnL

$81.55

Smart Money Entry

28.5¢ → 61.5¢

+116% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$303.39

Total Shares718

Combined PnL+$98.66

No6 traders

Total Value$57.01

Total Shares140

Combined PnL-$17.12

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 26.4¢	$113.16	$162.96	+$49.81	54% 1111-940 (2051)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 35.3¢	$45.84	$79.91	+$34.07	41% 711-1031 (1742)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 32.7¢	$43.29	$50.34	+$7.05	54% 2307-1980 (4287)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 58.2¢	$41.51	$27.48	-$14.04	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$17.35	$10.76	-$2.45	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 40.2¢	$9.71	$9.29	-$0.42	46% 1139-1332 (2471)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.36	$5.7	+$4.34	30% 197-458 (655)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$4.7	$5.03	+$0.34	49% 828-860 (1688)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.07	$4.47	+$3.4	42% 2632-3664 (6296)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$3.36	$3.5	+$0.14	50% 763-758 (1521)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$1.63	$0.95	-$0.68	71% 902-361 (1263)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$113.16

Value

$162.96

PnL

+$49.81

Record

54%

1111-940 (2051)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.84

Value

$79.91

PnL

+$34.07

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.29

Value

$50.34

PnL

+$7.05

Record

54%

2307-1980 (4287)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$41.51

Value

$27.48

PnL

-$14.04

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$17.35

Value

$10.76

PnL

-$2.45

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$9.71

Value

$9.29

PnL

-$0.42

Record

46%

1139-1332 (2471)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$5.7

PnL

+$4.34

Record

30%

197-458 (655)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0.34

Record

49%

828-860 (1688)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.07

Value

$4.47

PnL

+$3.4

Record

42%

2632-3664 (6296)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

763-758 (1521)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$1.63

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.68

Record

71%

902-361 (1263)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.