Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on November 13?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$5.74

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,321

Combined PnL+$6.22

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares7

Combined PnL-$0.48

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0.43	99% 1015-11 (1026)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$62.25	$66.02	+$3.77	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$37.77	$39.96	+$2.19	38% 543-874 (1417)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$37.38	$37.63	+$0.26	48% 710-781 (1491)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$19.99	$20.36	+$0.37	62% 657-409 (1066)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$15.07	$15.09	+$0.02	58% 656-481 (1137)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$14.94	$14.99	+$0.04	50% 651-658 (1309)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.01	$5.01	-$0	45% 1020-1259 (2279)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$4	$3.99	-$0	50% 690-680 (1370)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.4¢	$0.49	$0.01	-$0.48	13% 62-416 (478)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$1,115.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0.43

Record

99%

1015-11 (1026)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$62.25

Value

$66.02

PnL

+$3.77

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$37.77

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$2.19

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$37.38

Value

$37.63

PnL

+$0.26

Record

48%

710-781 (1491)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$19.99

Value

$20.36

PnL

+$0.37

Record

62%

657-409 (1066)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$15.07

Value

$15.09

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

656-481 (1137)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$14.94

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

651-658 (1309)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0

Record

45%

1020-1259 (2279)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

Value

$3.99

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

690-680 (1370)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.48

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.