Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on November 13?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $372 held · ended Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$371.73

Combined PnL

-$25.95

Smart Money Entry

91.3¢ → 99.9¢

+9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$367.1

Total Shares368

Combined PnL+$34.41

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.64

Total Shares242

Combined PnL-$60.36

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 89.8¢	$234.62	$238.85	+$23.45	38% 543-874 (1417)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$98.24	$48.09	+$8.41	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97¢	$19.77	$20.34	+$0.57	50% 651-658 (1309)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$17.95	$18.34	+$0.39	45% 1020-1259 (2279)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$10.03	$10.24	+$0.21	58% 632-454 (1086)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.92	$10	+$0.09	48% 684-728 (1412)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87¢	$7.5	$8.6	+$1.1	73% 778-291 (1069)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$4.97	$5.08	+$0.11	50% 726-731 (1457)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.97	$5.01	+$0.04	48% 710-781 (1491)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 30.6¢	$48.65	$3.18	-$45.47	56% 1189-918 (2107)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$2.5	$2.53	+$0.03	99% 1015-11 (1026)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 15.9¢	$120.33	$1.19	-$13.15	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$1.74	$0.25	-$1.49	13% 62-416 (478)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.32	$0.02	-$0.24	65% 4251-2269 (6520)

241532532432

Invested

$234.62

Value

$238.85

PnL

+$23.45

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$98.24

Value

$48.09

PnL

+$8.41

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$19.77

Value

$20.34

PnL

+$0.57

Record

50%

651-658 (1309)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$17.95

Value

$18.34

PnL

+$0.39

Record

45%

1020-1259 (2279)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$10.03

Value

$10.24

PnL

+$0.21

Record

58%

632-454 (1086)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.92

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.09

Record

48%

684-728 (1412)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$1.1

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

726-731 (1457)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0.04

Record

48%

710-781 (1491)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.65

Value

$3.18

PnL

-$45.47

Record

56%

1189-918 (2107)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.03

Record

99%

1015-11 (1026)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$120.33

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$13.15

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.74

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$1.49

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.24

Record

65%

4251-2269 (6520)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.