Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on November 13?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 99¢ · $202 held · ended Nov 13

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$202.32

Combined PnL

-$47.56

Smart Money Entry

91.7¢ → 98.9¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$200.1

Total Shares204

Combined PnL-$5.29

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.22

Total Shares148

Combined PnL-$42.28

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.9¢	$218.34	$75.79	-$18.48	38% 543-874 (1417)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$63.38	$37.37	+$4.49	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$36.14	$37.26	+$1.12	50% 651-658 (1309)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 84¢	$17.12	$20.09	+$2.97	58% 656-481 (1137)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 81.9¢	$16.79	$19.63	+$2.85	73% 778-291 (1069)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 92¢	$4.68	$5.02	+$0.34	45% 1020-1259 (2279)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.5	$4.93	+$1.43	13% 62-416 (478)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$11.21	$1.29	-$9.91	56% 1189-918 (2107)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$231.04	$0.79	-$32.14	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.36	$0.14	-$0.23	65% 4251-2269 (6520)

241532532432

Invested

$218.34

Value

$75.79

PnL

-$18.48

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$63.38

Value

$37.37

PnL

+$4.49

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$36.14

Value

$37.26

PnL

+$1.12

Record

50%

651-658 (1309)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$17.12

Value

$20.09

PnL

+$2.97

Record

58%

656-481 (1137)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$16.79

Value

$19.63

PnL

+$2.85

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.68

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0.34

Record

45%

1020-1259 (2279)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$1.43

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.21

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$9.91

Record

56%

1189-918 (2107)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$231.04

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$32.14

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.23

Record

65%

4251-2269 (6520)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.