Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on November 13?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 82¢ · $247 held · ended Nov 13

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$247.29

Combined PnL

$54.72

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 81.5¢

+10% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$117.94

Total Shares136

Combined PnL+$55.57

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.7

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.85

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67ARB<$100	Yesavg 21.1¢	$167.79	$128.65	-$5.34	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
└ No leg	Noavg 78¢	$66.65	$71.35	+$2.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.1¢	$73.22	$57.3	-$7.77
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 71.6¢	$31.01	$34.06	+$3.05	73% 778-291 (1069)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$33.29	$23.86	-$1.52	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
24 241532532432	Noavg 74.5¢	$207.46	$21.59	+$46.42	38% 543-874 (1417)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 52¢	$5.2	$8.78	+$3.58	45% 1020-1259 (2279)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$8.8	$7.87	-$0.93	50% 726-731 (1457)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.21	$4.48	+$1.26	48% 684-728 (1412)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 56¢	$2.85	$4.47	+$1.62	62% 657-409 (1066)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.2	$4.46	+$1.26	58% 656-481 (1137)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.18	$4.43	+$1.25	50% 690-680 (1370)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 87¢	$4.37	$3.94	-$0.43	58% 632-454 (1086)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$1.55	$0.7	-$0.85	65% 4251-2269 (6520)

hello.67ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$167.79

Value

$128.65

PnL

-$5.34

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

Both legs:

No$66.6578¢+$2.43

Yes$73.2221.1¢-$7.77

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$31.01

Value

$34.06

PnL

+$3.05

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.29

Value

$23.86

PnL

-$1.52

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

241532532432

Invested

$207.46

Value

$21.59

PnL

+$46.42

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

$8.78

PnL

+$3.58

Record

45%

1020-1259 (2279)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$8.8

Value

$7.87

PnL

-$0.93

Record

50%

726-731 (1457)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.21

Value

$4.48

PnL

+$1.26

Record

48%

684-728 (1412)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$4.47

PnL

+$1.62

Record

62%

657-409 (1066)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$4.46

PnL

+$1.26

Record

58%

656-481 (1137)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.18

Value

$4.43

PnL

+$1.25

Record

50%

690-680 (1370)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.37

Value

$3.94

PnL

-$0.43

Record

58%

632-454 (1086)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.85

Record

65%

4251-2269 (6520)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.