Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on November 13?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 76¢ · $299 held · ended Nov 13

Yes24¢No76¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$298.63

Combined PnL

$151.3

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 76.2¢

-11% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$197.93

Total Shares658

Combined PnL+$174.51

No8 traders

Total Value$100.71

Total Shares133

Combined PnL-$23.22

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 4.6¢	$52.68	$109.19	+$93.45	38% 543-874 (1417)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$96.28	$88.73	+$81.06	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 93.3¢	$121.89	$25.07	-$15.29	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$22.42	$18.03	-$4.39	58% 632-454 (1086)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$16.07	$14.52	-$1.55	50% 726-731 (1457)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$12.94	$14.34	+$1.39	73% 778-291 (1069)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 78.8¢	$15.21	$14.25	-$0.96	45% 1020-1259 (2279)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$9.04	$7.31	-$1.74	48% 710-781 (1491)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 90.7¢	$4.62	$3.62	-$0.99	48% 684-728 (1412)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$3.27	$3.58	+$0.31	50% 651-658 (1309)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$52.68

Value

$109.19

PnL

+$93.45

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.28

Value

$88.73

PnL

+$81.06

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

ghorrock

Invested

$121.89

Value

$25.07

PnL

-$15.29

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$22.42

Value

$18.03

PnL

-$4.39

Record

58%

632-454 (1086)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$16.07

Value

$14.52

PnL

-$1.55

Record

50%

726-731 (1457)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$12.94

Value

$14.34

PnL

+$1.39

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$15.21

Value

$14.25

PnL

-$0.96

Record

45%

1020-1259 (2279)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.04

Value

$7.31

PnL

-$1.74

Record

48%

710-781 (1491)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.62

Value

$3.62

PnL

-$0.99

Record

48%

684-728 (1412)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.27

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$0.31

Record

50%

651-658 (1309)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.1%

76.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.