Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on November 13?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 47¢ · $415 held · ended Nov 13

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$414.55

Combined PnL

-$362.09

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 47.3¢

-49% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$383.61

Total Shares726

Combined PnL-$367.01

Yes1 trader

Total Value$30.94

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$4.92

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 94.3¢	$306.02	$182.08	-$123.94	38% 543-874 (1417)
1D 1DVSBSTDCTR	Noavg 99.9¢	$381.94	$97.94	-$169.62	99% 1015-11 (1026)
GH ghorrockCTR	Noavg 80.4¢	$157.71	$36.14	-$34.28	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 80.4¢	$50.07	$31.84	-$18.23	73% 778-291 (1069)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$26.02	$30.94	+$4.92	65% 4251-2269 (6520)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$25.36	$13.02	-$12.33	50% 690-680 (1370)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$11.8	$7.11	-$4.69	58% 632-454 (1086)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 54.6¢	$5.47	$5.62	+$0.15	62% 657-409 (1066)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 88.4¢	$4.59	$2.65	-$1.93	48% 684-728 (1412)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5.04	$2.59	-$2.45	50% 651-658 (1309)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 40.5¢	$2.09	$2.54	+$0.45	48% 710-781 (1491)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 55.3¢	$2.21	$2.08	-$0.14	58% 656-481 (1137)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$306.02

Value

$182.08

PnL

-$123.94

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

1DVSBSTDCTR

Invested

$381.94

Value

$97.94

PnL

-$169.62

Record

99%

1015-11 (1026)

ghorrockCTR

Invested

$157.71

Value

$36.14

PnL

-$34.28

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$50.07

Value

$31.84

PnL

-$18.23

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.02

Value

$30.94

PnL

+$4.92

Record

65%

4251-2269 (6520)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$25.36

Value

$13.02

PnL

-$12.33

Record

50%

690-680 (1370)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$11.8

Value

$7.11

PnL

-$4.69

Record

58%

632-454 (1086)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$5.47

Value

$5.62

PnL

+$0.15

Record

62%

657-409 (1066)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$4.59

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$1.93

Record

48%

684-728 (1412)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$2.45

Record

50%

651-658 (1309)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$2.09

Value

$2.54

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

710-781 (1491)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$2.21

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.14

Record

58%

656-481 (1137)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.6%

47.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.