Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or higher on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $264 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$263.81
$0.2
99.7¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $83.76 | $83.83 | +$0.08 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $64.17 | $64.21 | +$0.04 | 79% 286-77 (363) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $44.88 | $44.89 | +$0 | 11% 44-371 (415) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $40.79 | $40.81 | +$0.02 | 20% 69-276 (345) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.93 | +$0.02 | 11% 42-326 (368) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.12 | $0.15 | +$0.03 | 12% 17-121 (138) |
Invested
$83.76
Value
$83.83
PnL
+$0.08
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Invested
$64.17
Value
$64.21
PnL
+$0.04
Record
79%
286-77 (363)
Invested
$44.88
Value
$44.89
PnL
+$0
Record
11%
44-371 (415)
Invested
$40.79
Value
$40.81
PnL
+$0.02
Record
20%
69-276 (345)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.93
PnL
+$0.02
Record
11%
42-326 (368)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.15
PnL
+$0.03
Record
12%
17-121 (138)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.