Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $128 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$127.94
$0.44
97.5¢ → 97.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $44.66 | $44.71 | +$0.05 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $31.25 | $31.39 | +$0.15 | 79% 231-63 (294) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $23.37 | $23.47 | +$0.1 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $19.56 | $19.56 | +$0 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $8.66 | $8.8 | +$0.14 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
Invested
$44.66
Value
$44.71
PnL
+$0.05
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$31.25
Value
$31.39
PnL
+$0.15
Record
79%
231-63 (294)
Invested
$23.37
Value
$23.47
PnL
+$0.1
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
Invested
$19.56
Value
$19.56
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$8.66
Value
$8.8
PnL
+$0.14
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.