Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on November 12?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 83¢ · $192 held · ends Nov 12

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$192.17

Combined PnL

-$0.81

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 83¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$41.22

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$5.34

No6 traders

Total Value$150.95

Total Shares174

Combined PnL+$4.52

Yes — 14%No — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.3¢	$46.56	$41.22	-$5.34	59% 1019-705 (1724)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$39.25	$40.16	+$0.91	29% 2470-6157 (8627)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 80.9¢	$31.74	$33.54	+$1.8	79% 192-51 (243)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$27.13	$20.56	+$1.33	50% 274-269 (543)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 83.3¢	$20	$19.92	-$0.08	38% 1203-1982 (3185)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$18.8	$19.67	+$0.86	52% 5344-4847 (10191)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 87¢	$17.4	$17.1	-$0.3	15% 13-72 (85)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.56

Value

$41.22

PnL

-$5.34

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$39.25

Value

$40.16

PnL

+$0.91

Record

29%

2470-6157 (8627)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$31.74

Value

$33.54

PnL

+$1.8

Record

79%

192-51 (243)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$27.13

Value

$20.56

PnL

+$1.33

Record

50%

274-269 (543)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$19.92

PnL

-$0.08

Record

38%

1203-1982 (3185)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.8

Value

$19.67

PnL

+$0.86

Record

52%

5344-4847 (10191)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$17.4

Value

$17.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

15%

13-72 (85)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.