Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 56¢ · $160 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$160.45
-$5.97
66.2¢ → 56¢
-15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.3¢ | $57.85 | $57.85 | +$0 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 59.3¢ | $32.89 | $29.42 | +$2.29 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 69.4¢ | $32.58 | $29.12 | -$3.46 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 72.1¢ | $19.49 | $16.77 | -$2.72 | 79% 231-63 (294) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 70.7¢ | $16.96 | $14.88 | -$2.08 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $12.4 | $12.4 | +$0 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
Invested
$57.85
Value
$57.85
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$32.89
Value
$29.42
PnL
+$2.29
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$32.58
Value
$29.12
PnL
-$3.46
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$19.49
Value
$16.77
PnL
-$2.72
Record
79%
231-63 (294)
Invested
$16.96
Value
$14.88
PnL
-$2.08
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
Invested
$12.4
Value
$12.4
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.