Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 71¢ · $394 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$393.7
$29.17
57.1¢ → 71¢
+24% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 59.5¢ | $240.99 | $247.06 | +$6.07 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 50.5¢ | $63.88 | $64.6 | +$14.06 | 50% 274-269 (543) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 53.2¢ | $24.97 | $28.89 | +$3.91 | 29% 2470-6157 (8627) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 54.5¢ | $23.11 | $26.09 | +$2.98 | 79% 192-51 (243) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $12.72 | $14.76 | +$2.04 | 38% 1203-1982 (3185) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $12.2 | $12.3 | +$0.1 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
Invested
$240.99
Value
$247.06
PnL
+$6.07
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$63.88
Value
$64.6
PnL
+$14.06
Record
50%
274-269 (543)
Invested
$24.97
Value
$28.89
PnL
+$3.91
Record
29%
2470-6157 (8627)
Invested
$23.11
Value
$26.09
PnL
+$2.98
Record
79%
192-51 (243)
Invested
$12.72
Value
$14.76
PnL
+$2.04
Record
38%
1203-1982 (3185)
Invested
$12.2
Value
$12.3
PnL
+$0.1
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.