Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $117 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$116.6
$2.27
94.1¢ → 94.2¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $44.02 | $45.09 | +$1.07 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $28.78 | $29.11 | +$0.32 | 79% 231-63 (294) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $22.16 | $23.04 | +$0.88 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $19.2 | $19.2 | +$0 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.16 | $0.16 | +$0 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
Invested
$44.02
Value
$45.09
PnL
+$1.07
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$28.78
Value
$29.11
PnL
+$0.32
Record
79%
231-63 (294)
Invested
$22.16
Value
$23.04
PnL
+$0.88
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
Invested
$19.2
Value
$19.2
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.16
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.