Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $114 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$114.02
$0.42
99.2¢ → 99.3¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $41.58 | $41.79 | +$0.21 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $36.29 | $36.24 | -$0.06 | 79% 231-63 (294) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $19.9 | $19.9 | +$0 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $15.76 | $15.92 | +$0.16 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.07 | $0.18 | +$0.11 | 15% 15-83 (98) |
Invested
$41.58
Value
$41.79
PnL
+$0.21
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$36.29
Value
$36.24
PnL
-$0.06
Record
79%
231-63 (294)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$15.76
Value
$15.92
PnL
+$0.16
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.18
PnL
+$0.11
Record
15%
15-83 (98)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.