Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C or higher on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $62 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$61.54
-$1.82
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $31.79 | $31.7 | -$0.1 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $14.58 | $14.9 | +$0.33 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $4.92 | $4.97 | +$0.05 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $6.65 | $4.55 | -$2.1 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $2.92 | $2.92 | +$0 | 42% 370-503 (873) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | -$0 | 99% 268-2 (270) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$31.79
Value
$31.7
PnL
-$0.1
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$14.58
Value
$14.9
PnL
+$0.33
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$4.97
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$6.65
Value
$4.55
PnL
-$2.1
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
Invested
$2.92
Value
$2.92
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
370-503 (873)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0
Record
99%
268-2 (270)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.