Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 66¢ · $626 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$625.53
-$54.15
76.3¢ → 66¢
-14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 74.3¢ | $367.54 | $348.18 | -$19.36 | 31% 264-600 (864) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 79.6¢ | $279.24 | $245.42 | -$33.82 | 68% 2062-950 (3012) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $13.2 | $13.9 | +$0.7 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79.4¢ | $14.81 | $13.23 | -$1.57 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $4.9 | $4.79 | -$0.1 | 81% 535-125 (660) |
Invested
$367.54
Value
$348.18
PnL
-$19.36
Record
31%
264-600 (864)
Invested
$279.24
Value
$245.42
PnL
-$33.82
Record
68%
2062-950 (3012)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$13.9
PnL
+$0.7
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$14.81
Value
$13.23
PnL
-$1.57
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.79
PnL
-$0.1
Record
81%
535-125 (660)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.