Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on November 11?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 32¢ · $249 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$248.82
$1.85
Research grade
NeutralYes at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 68.3¢ | $152.85 | $150.8 | -$2.05 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.3¢ | $88.8 | $88.4 | -$0.4 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32.8¢ | $64.05 | $62.4 | -$1.65 | |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.9¢ | $55.38 | $57.38 | +$1.99 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $28.4 | $28.4 | +$0 | 69% 2060-944 (3004) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $9.87 | $9.72 | -$0.14 | 85% 441-76 (517) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $2.52 | $2.52 | +$0 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
Invested
$152.85
Value
$150.8
PnL
-$2.05
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.38
Value
$57.38
PnL
+$1.99
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$28.4
Value
$28.4
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
2060-944 (3004)
Invested
$9.87
Value
$9.72
PnL
-$0.14
Record
85%
441-76 (517)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$2.52
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.