Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 85¢ · $156 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$156.38
-$9.44
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.3¢ | $75 | $60.86 | -$14.14 | 31% 264-600 (864) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 83.7¢ | $49.14 | $51.69 | +$2.55 | 68% 2062-950 (3012) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $16.67 | $17.89 | +$1.22 | 81% 535-125 (660) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $16.8 | $17.6 | +$0.8 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $8.21 | $8.34 | +$0.13 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
Invested
$75
Value
$60.86
PnL
-$14.14
Record
31%
264-600 (864)
Invested
$49.14
Value
$51.69
PnL
+$2.55
Record
68%
2062-950 (3012)
Invested
$16.67
Value
$17.89
PnL
+$1.22
Record
81%
535-125 (660)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$17.6
PnL
+$0.8
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$8.21
Value
$8.34
PnL
+$0.13
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.