Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $132 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$132.4
$0.76
97.7¢ → 98¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $51.41 | $52.1 | +$0.69 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $31.46 | $31.39 | -$0.06 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $19.58 | $19.71 | +$0.13 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $19.64 | $19.66 | +$0.02 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $6.06 | $6.04 | -$0.01 | 41% 688-988 (1676) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | +$0 | 99% 268-2 (270) |
Invested
$51.41
Value
$52.1
PnL
+$0.69
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$31.46
Value
$31.39
PnL
-$0.06
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$19.58
Value
$19.71
PnL
+$0.13
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$19.64
Value
$19.66
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$6.06
Value
$6.04
PnL
-$0.01
Record
41%
688-988 (1676)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
268-2 (270)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.