Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $321 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$320.91
$1.52
99.5¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $214.87 | $214.87 | +$0 | 99% 268-2 (270) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $58.56 | $59.94 | +$1.38 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $31.97 | $31.94 | -$0.03 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.15 | $6.15 | -$0.01 | 48% 337-362 (699) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $4.96 | $5.08 | +$0.18 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $2.94 | $2.94 | +$0 | 45% 374-466 (840) |
Invested
$214.87
Value
$214.87
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
268-2 (270)
Invested
$58.56
Value
$59.94
PnL
+$1.38
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$31.97
Value
$31.94
PnL
-$0.03
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$6.15
Value
$6.15
PnL
-$0.01
Record
48%
337-362 (699)
Invested
$4.96
Value
$5.08
PnL
+$0.18
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$2.94
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
374-466 (840)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.