Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or higher on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $519 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$519
$2.67
96.8¢ → 96.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $367.59 | $369.55 | +$1.96 | 24% 158-513 (671) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 96.5¢ | $120.33 | $121.26 | +$0.93 | 51% 256-247 (503) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $19.6 | $19.45 | -$0.15 | 52% 5313-4817 (10130) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $6.25 | $6.2 | -$0.05 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $2.5 | $2.48 | -$0.02 | 100% 94-0 (94) |
Invested
$367.59
Value
$369.55
PnL
+$1.96
Record
24%
158-513 (671)
Invested
$120.33
Value
$121.26
PnL
+$0.93
Record
51%
256-247 (503)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$19.45
PnL
-$0.15
Record
52%
5313-4817 (10130)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$6.25
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$0.05
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$0.02
Record
100%
94-0 (94)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.