Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 85¢ · $64 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$63.54
-$4.9
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.6¢ | $24.9 | $21.5 | -$3.4 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $17.6 | $17 | -$0.6 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 87.4¢ | $14.78 | $14.37 | -$0.41 | 85% 441-76 (517) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $5.81 | $5.42 | -$0.38 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $5.35 | $5.24 | -$0.11 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
Invested
$24.9
Value
$21.5
PnL
-$3.4
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$17
PnL
-$0.6
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$14.78
Value
$14.37
PnL
-$0.41
Record
85%
441-76 (517)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.81
Value
$5.42
PnL
-$0.38
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$5.35
Value
$5.24
PnL
-$0.11
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.