Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 2 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on November 10?

2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (15%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $251 held · ended Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 15%

Total Value

$250.74

Combined PnL

-$107.61

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 13 top traders (15%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$76.62

Total Shares301

Combined PnL-$119.04

No11 traders

Total Value$174.12

Total Shares176

Combined PnL+$11.44

Yes — 15%No — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-46 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 43.3¢	$186.21	$76.16	-$110.05	28% 209-544 (753)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$33	$33.08	+$0.08	38% 253-414 (667)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$28.88	$28.84	-$0.04	36% 254-444 (698)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.52	$20.49	-$0.03	43% 225-304 (529)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.92	$19.84	-$0.08	50% 4547-4458 (9005)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 55¢	$11	$19.67	+$8.67	53% 5381-4862 (10243)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$17.72	$17.43	-$0.29	42% 243-342 (585)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.8	$15.78	-$0.02	36% 262-468 (730)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 53¢	$3.38	$6.28	+$2.9	36% 3004-5342 (8346)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.15	$6.15	-$0.01	38% 575-934 (1509)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96¢	$14.78	$4.23	+$0.24	53% 325-288 (613)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$2.31	$2.32	+$0.01	79% 231-63 (294)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.1¢	$9.46	$0.46	-$9	84% 481-91 (572)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$186.21

Value

$76.16

PnL

-$110.05

Record

28%

209-544 (753)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$33

Value

$33.08

PnL

+$0.08

Record

38%

253-414 (667)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$28.88

Value

$28.84

PnL

-$0.04

Record

36%

254-444 (698)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$20.52

Value

$20.49

PnL

-$0.03

Record

43%

225-304 (529)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.92

Value

$19.84

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

4547-4458 (9005)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$19.67

PnL

+$8.67

Record

53%

5381-4862 (10243)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$17.72

Value

$17.43

PnL

-$0.29

Record

42%

243-342 (585)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$15.8

Value

$15.78

PnL

-$0.02

Record

36%

262-468 (730)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$3.38

Value

$6.28

PnL

+$2.9

Record

36%

3004-5342 (8346)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.15

Value

$6.15

PnL

-$0.01

Record

38%

575-934 (1509)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.78

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

325-288 (613)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.32

PnL

+$0.01

Record

79%

231-63 (294)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.46

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$9

Record

84%

481-91 (572)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 13 top traders (15%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-46 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.