Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 31?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $401 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$400.65
$102.64
82.2¢ → 92¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 85.4¢ | $193.57 | $275.25 | +$81.69 | 59% 1805-1255 (3060) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.6¢ | $45.59 | $64.35 | +$19.66 | 42% 1717-2340 (4057) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $42.37 | $33.89 | -$8.47 | 55% 410-333 (743) |
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $13 | $14.4 | +$1.4 | 58% 5846-4289 (10135) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.3¢ | $4.01 | $12.37 | +$8.36 | 53% 6540-5754 (12294) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $0.39 | $0.39 | +$0 | 32% 4436-9523 (13959) |
Invested
$193.57
Value
$275.25
PnL
+$81.69
Record
59%
1805-1255 (3060)
Invested
$45.59
Value
$64.35
PnL
+$19.66
Record
42%
1717-2340 (4057)
Invested
$42.37
Value
$33.89
PnL
-$8.47
Record
55%
410-333 (743)
Invested
$13
Value
$14.4
PnL
+$1.4
Record
58%
5846-4289 (10135)
Invested
$4.01
Value
$12.37
PnL
+$8.36
Record
53%
6540-5754 (12294)
Invested
$0.39
Value
$0.39
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4436-9523 (13959)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.