Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 11°C on October 31?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 64¢ · $257 held · ends Oct 31

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$257.34

Combined PnL

$7.62

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 64¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$196.32

Total Shares307

Combined PnL+$14.73

Yes2 traders

Total Value$61.02

Total Shares149

Combined PnL-$7.11

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 59.1¢	$180.21	$193.29	+$14.93	21% 292-1070 (1362)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$66.88	$59.22	-$7.36	42% 1706-2331 (4037)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.24	$3.03	-$0.2	59% 1708-1169 (2877)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.8	+$0.25	62% 1438-882 (2320)

Istaroth

Invested

$180.21

Value

$193.29

PnL

+$14.93

Record

21%

292-1070 (1362)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.88

Value

$59.22

PnL

-$7.36

Record

42%

1706-2331 (4037)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$3.24

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$0.2

Record

59%

1708-1169 (2877)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.25

Record

62%

1438-882 (2320)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.