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Yes
balthazar<$100NoNoYesYesYesYes
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Yes
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
9
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$48.1
Smart Money Signal
Yes
7 of 9 top traders (78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares540
Combined PnL-$48.1
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 78%No — 22%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $48.1 | — | -$48.1 | 59% 1743-1208 (2951) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20984-13348 (34332) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 29% 181-444 (625) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1774-1756 (3530) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 626-610 (1236) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6484-5687 (12171) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13603-10423 (24026) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 527-2364 (2891) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | — | — | +$0 | 21% 300-1148 (1448) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$48.1
Value
—
PnL
-$48.1
Record
59%
1743-1208 (2951)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20984-13348 (34332)
VA
Vale54holi<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
181-444 (625)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1774-1756 (3530)
0X
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
626-610 (1236)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6484-5687 (12171)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13603-10423 (24026)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
527-2364 (2891)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
300-1148 (1448)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x2fcad5cc...9d9ade
Slug
highest-temperature-in-beijing-on-october-30-2026-23c