Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 30?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 56¢ · $553 held · ends Oct 30

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$552.75

Combined PnL

-$48.12

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 56¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$342.85

Total Shares816

Combined PnL-$100.99

Yes2 traders

Total Value$209.9

Total Shares375

Combined PnL+$52.87

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 54.3¢	$395.01	$305.3	-$89.71	23% 287-958 (1245)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 42.2¢	$126.83	$174.26	+$47.43	51% 602-578 (1180)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 54.6¢	$48.83	$37.56	-$11.28	53% 6405-5609 (12014)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 48.7¢	$30.2	$35.64	+$5.44	60% 1670-1125 (2795)

Istaroth

Invested

$395.01

Value

$305.3

PnL

-$89.71

Record

23%

287-958 (1245)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$126.83

Value

$174.26

PnL

+$47.43

Record

51%

602-578 (1180)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$48.83

Value

$37.56

PnL

-$11.28

Record

53%

6405-5609 (12014)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.2

Value

$35.64

PnL

+$5.44

Record

60%

1670-1125 (2795)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.